Next-day direction signals, logistic regression vs. XGBoost, walk-forward backtested against buy-and-hold — plus a live news-sentiment model variant tracked via paper trading.
| Ticker | As of | Signal | Probability | Model |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | 2026-08-07 | UP | 51.7% | logistic_regression |
| AAPL | 2026-08-07 | UP | 64.6% | xgboost |
| MSFT | 2026-08-07 | UP | 78.0% | xgboost |
| GOOGL | 2026-08-07 | UP | 50.5% | logistic_regression |
| AMZN | 2026-08-07 | DOWN | 24.4% | xgboost |
logistic_regression: 52.0% accuracy / 56.1% return · xgboost: 51.8% accuracy / 61.5% return
News-augmented model has limited history (1 day of sentiment so far); treat early results as preliminary.
baseline: $10,000.00 · news_augmented: $10,000.00 · buy_hold: $10,000.00
logistic_regression: 48.4% accuracy / 31.7% return · xgboost: 49.1% accuracy / 78.0% return
News-augmented model has limited history (1 day of sentiment so far); treat early results as preliminary.
baseline: $10,000.00 · news_augmented: $10,000.00 · buy_hold: $10,000.00
logistic_regression: 47.4% accuracy / 28.1% return · xgboost: 49.1% accuracy / 40.0% return
News-augmented model has limited history (1 day of sentiment so far); treat early results as preliminary.
baseline: $10,000.00 · news_augmented: $10,000.00 · buy_hold: $10,000.00
logistic_regression: 51.7% accuracy / 147.8% return · xgboost: 49.7% accuracy / 113.2% return
News-augmented model has limited history (1 day of sentiment so far); treat early results as preliminary.
baseline: $10,000.00 · news_augmented: $10,000.00 · buy_hold: $10,000.00
logistic_regression: 49.1% accuracy / -1.7% return · xgboost: 50.6% accuracy / 41.6% return
News-augmented model has limited history (1 day of sentiment so far); treat early results as preliminary.
baseline: $10,000.00 · news_augmented: $10,000.00 · buy_hold: $10,000.00